· Naughties
· · 2004
· · · January
· · · · 03 (2 entries)

Technology Predictor Success Matrix · This is the first in a se­ries of es­says on a sim­ple but im­por­tant ques­tion: Which new tech­nolo­gies will make it, and which will fail? The TPSM at­tempts to ap­proach this ques­tion sys­tem­at­i­cal­ly, by fig­ur­ing out what the key suc­cess fac­tors are. The premise is that you use the past to pre­dict the fu­ture. This in­tro­duc­tion al­so serves as the Table of Con­tents. I’ve now post­ed the sam­ples of “Winner” and “Loser” tech­nolo­gies, the list of can­di­date pre­dic­tors, and the ma­trix run­down on all of the can­di­dates, hav­ing saved the best for the last. Next I’ll try to craft some sort of con­clu­sion. I’m get­ting a lot of email feed­back on this se­ries. When I’m done, I’ll go back and dig through it and write up the good stuff; thanks to all and keep it com­ing ...
TPSM 1: Technology Winners · If we want to pre­dict which tech­nolo­gies are go­ing to change the world, it will prob­a­bly help if we give some study to tech­nolo­gies that al­ready have. Here­with the first step in build­ing the Tech­nol­o­gy Pre­dic­tor Suc­cess Ma­trix ...
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