This is the fifth of five predictions for 2008, expanded from the short form generated on short notice as described here.

Prediction · The short version:

There will be massive, newsworthy, churn in the social-networking space, as Facebook creaks under the strain of its own size and growth, and nimbler competitors find chinks in its armor.

Told Ya So · This one came true within a week of me making it: Scoble got erased. Yes, there are multiple sides to that issue. But it’s a hot issue nonetheless; since Facebook and its competitors are trying to become the experience of the Internet for a huge number of people, minor disturbances in that weather system quickly become major issues.

Let me crank that prediction up a bit: The Scoble imbroglio will be just one of many Social Networking Scare stories this year.

Hold on a second... there’ve been two already since that one blew up. From Toronto, serious legal-disclosure issues and from Fortinet, insecure Facebook apps.

The Lesson Is · Leave a gap, as I did, between making your predictions and expanding on them. Some of them might already have come true.


Comment feed for ongoing:Comments feed

From: Henry Story (Jan 06 2008, at 10:12)

Funny. Just today I made the same prediction, before taking time to catch up on my blog reading :-) But I expand on it, and give some arguments as to why there is going to be upheaval in that space.

see: "2008: The Rise of Linked Data"

By the way there should be something really interesting to do with your blog comment system and linking it to OpenId and foaf to create a network of trust. See one example of it here:


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