This is the fifth of five predictions for 2008, expanded from the short form generated on short notice as described here.
Prediction · The short version:
There will be massive, newsworthy, churn in the social-networking space, as Facebook creaks under the strain of its own size and growth, and nimbler competitors find chinks in its armor.
Told Ya So · This one came true within a week of me making it: Scoble got erased. Yes, there are multiple sides to that issue. But it’s a hot issue nonetheless; since Facebook and its competitors are trying to become the experience of the Internet for a huge number of people, minor disturbances in that weather system quickly become major issues.
Let me crank that prediction up a bit: The Scoble imbroglio will be just one of many Social Networking Scare stories this year.
The Lesson Is · Leave a gap, as I did, between making your predictions and expanding on them. Some of them might already have come true.