I want the au­thor piece linked in the side­bar to be a full dis­clo­sure of the fi­nan­cial in­ter­ests of the per­son who’s writ­ing what you’re read­ing. I think on­line writ­ing with­out such a dis­clo­sure is trou­bling. Any­how, my fi­nan­cial dis­clo­sures no longer in­clude Google, be­cause I sold all my shares last week.

Not an in­sid­er · Be­cause this on­go­ing frag­ment touch­es on mon­ey, I should be clear that I have no ma­te­ri­al non-public in­for­ma­tion that might give me in­sight in­to the fu­ture of the Google share price. (In fac­t, I’m not sure I ev­er did, even when I was work­ing there.)

Why? · I don’t un­der­stand the busi­ness mod­el, that’s al­l. I’m con­vinced that Lar­ry Page is a re­al­ly smart guy, but I don’t un­der­stand his opin­ion­s.

If I read the Al­pha­bet Q3 fi­nan­cials cor­rect­ly, the rev­enue is about 88% ad­ver­tis­ing. The ad­ver­tis­ing busi­ness is an­oth­er thing I don’t un­der­stand.

The year-over-year growth rate is 20%. About 40% of hu­mans are on the Net, which in­cludes ev­ery­one in the world with much mon­ey.

I have no idea if YouTube is prof­itable. Or Map­s. Or Mu­sic, or Pho­to­s, or Plus.

Which is to say, I don’t see any rea­son to think that Google’s fu­ture re­sults will be any dif­fer­ent from their past ones. Or that they’ll stay the same.

Still a fan · In my day job, of course Google’s Cloud busi­ness is a di­rect com­peti­tor. But I still use the con­sumer prod­ucts at home all the time. I en­joyed work­ing there, and think they on bal­ance im­prove the world. Al­so, I and my sav­ings ac­count re­al­ly ap­pre­ci­ate those shares. Thanks!


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From: stephen o'grady (Oct 31 2016, at 20:03)

That's interesting. The last time I looked at Google's share of revenue from advertising was in 2013, it would appear (http://sogrady-media.redmonk.com/sogrady/files/2014/02/goog-pct-rev-from-ads.png), and at that point it was 95%. If it's down 7% in 3 years, that's something we'll have to take a look at.


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