I want the author piece linked in the sidebar to be a full disclosure of the financial interests of the person who’s writing what you’re reading. I think online writing without such a disclosure is troubling. Anyhow, my financial disclosures no longer include Google, because I sold all my shares last week.

Not an insider · Because this ongoing fragment touches on money, I should be clear that I have no material non-public information that might give me insight into the future of the Google share price. (In fact, I’m not sure I ever did, even when I was working there.)

Why? · I don’t understand the business model, that’s all. I’m convinced that Larry Page is a really smart guy, but I don’t understand his opinions.

If I read the Alphabet Q3 financials correctly, the revenue is about 88% advertising. The advertising business is another thing I don’t understand.

The year-over-year growth rate is 20%. About 40% of humans are on the Net, which includes everyone in the world with much money.

I have no idea if YouTube is profitable. Or Maps. Or Music, or Photos, or Plus.

Which is to say, I don’t see any reason to think that Google’s future results will be any different from their past ones. Or that they’ll stay the same.

Still a fan · In my day job, of course Google’s Cloud business is a direct competitor. But I still use the consumer products at home all the time. I enjoyed working there, and think they on balance improve the world. Also, I and my savings account really appreciate those shares. Thanks!


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From: stephen o'grady (Oct 31 2016, at 20:03)

That's interesting. The last time I looked at Google's share of revenue from advertising was in 2013, it would appear (http://sogrady-media.redmonk.com/sogrady/files/2014/02/goog-pct-rev-from-ads.png), and at that point it was 95%. If it's down 7% in 3 years, that's something we'll have to take a look at.


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