When
· Naughties
· · 2004
· · · January
· · · · 03 (2 entries)

Technology Predictor Success Matrix · This is the first in a series of essays on a simple but important question: Which new technologies will make it, and which will fail? The TPSM attempts to approach this question systematically, by figuring out what the key success factors are. The premise is that you use the past to predict the future. This introduction also serves as the Table of Contents. I’ve now posted the samples of “Winner” and “Loser” technologies, the list of candidate predictors, and the matrix rundown on all of the candidates, having saved the best for the last. Next I’ll try to craft some sort of conclusion. I’m getting a lot of email feedback on this series. When I’m done, I’ll go back and dig through it and write up the good stuff; thanks to all and keep it coming ...
 
TPSM 1: Technology Winners · If we want to predict which technologies are going to change the world, it will probably help if we give some study to technologies that already have. Herewith the first step in building the Technology Predictor Success Matrix ...
 
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